written and last updated by
Sam Smith at
13 Sep 2023
Journalist, Editorial Department
Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings forecast for the Macau gaming industry, specifically the EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of the six casino operators. According to the bank's analysts, the total EBITDA for 2023 is expected to reach nearly $6.55 billion (627.57 billion rubles), which is a 5% decrease from the previous estimate of $6.9 billion (661.1 billion rubles).
The analysts attribute this downward revision to a slower-than-anticipated recovery in Macau's gambling market. Pravin Choudhary, Gareth Leung, Stephen Grambling, and Nicholas DeValeria note that the expenses for Macau's casino operators are rising alongside business volumes.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the sector's net revenue will be around $24.05 billion (2.3 trillion rubles), with net profit potentially reaching $2.2 billion (210.8 billion rubles), which is 16% lower than earlier projections.
The differences between the previous and new EBITDA estimates for 2023 for specific operators are as follows:
Additionally, Morgan Stanley has projected the EBITDA for the Macau gaming industry in 2024 to be $9.48 billion (908.3 billion rubles). Analysts forecast that the combined net profit will approach $5.21 billion (499.2 billion rubles).
According to Morgan Stanley, mass market revenues in Macau have already returned to pre-COVID levels. However, analysts believe that the sector needs to increase its performance to offset rising entertainment taxes and gaming venue rental costs.
They also reported that slot machine revenues in the third quarter of 2023 reached 80% of the figures recorded in 2019.
It is worth noting that a casino in the UAE will provide Wynn with access to a wealthy population of 10 million.
